September 18th, 2026
So You Want to Be an Author?
I'm about 50,000 words into a book about the real estate industry. That's all I'll say about it for now. But since I published my last book, How Fathers Change Lives, I've learned more about the book business than I ever expected. If you've ever thought about writing one, here's what nobody tells you.
Start with the odds. Last year Americans published just over four million books. Not sold. Published. About 3.5 million were self-published and roughly 640,000 came from traditional publishers. When an industry analyst pulled a year of sales on some 45,000 new titles from the ten largest publishers, two thirds sold fewer than 1,000 copies. Fewer than one in 200 sold 100,000. These had real editors and real marketing budgets behind them. Most quietly vanished.
Then there's Atomic Habits. James Clear spent ten years building an email list before the book came out. When he signed his deal, he told himself 5,000 copies would mean it wasn't a failure, and 100,000 in the first year would be a dream. It sold a million in year one. In 2024 it was still atop the nonfiction charts, moving another 982,000 copies. It has now passed 30 million worldwide. Nobody in publishing saw that coming.
So how does a book get made? The traditional route starts with an agent. You don't pay an agent. The agent takes 15 percent of everything you earn, forever, and in return knows which editor at which house is hunting for your kind of book. A good one turns one interested publisher into three bidding against each other. Without one, most major publishers won't open your envelope.
Then comes the money. Publishers pay an advance, a bet on how many copies you'll sell. Surveys of nonfiction authors put the median around $17,500. In industry slang, a "good deal" is $100,000 to $250,000, a "significant deal" runs to half a million, and a "major deal" is anything above that. A publisher isn't buying your manuscript so much as renting your following. And you don't see another dime until your royalties, typically 10 to 15 percent of a hardcover's cover price, pay back the advance. Most books never do.
Now you wait. Twelve to eighteen months from contract to bookstore shelf is normal, while your manuscript is handed to people paid to tell you what's wrong with it. The developmental editor goes first. She's not fixing commas. She's telling you chapter seven should be chapter two, your argument collapses in the middle, and the story about your dog belongs on page one. Then the copy editor, who does fix the commas, along with the name you spelled two ways and the claim on page 40 that contradicts page 12. Then the proofreader, one last set of eyes. Each one makes the book better. Each one makes you feel a little worse.
And the bestseller list? The New York Times list is the one everyone wants, and it isn't a raw sales count. Thousands of stores report confidentially each week, the Times weights the numbers, and its editors decide what belongs. Bulk purchases get flagged with a little dagger. In 2017 an unknown novel hit number one on the young adult list after its publisher bought its way there with bulk orders. The Times pulled it within days.
Which brings me to Chicken Soup for the Soul. Turned down by 144 publishers before a small Florida press took a chance on it, it became one of the best-selling series of all time. Its co-author, Mark Victor Hansen, is an old friend. I hired him to speak to my real estate firm in the early 90s, and even then he refused to accept the word rejection. A hundred and forty-four people told him no. He heard "not yet."
I have a saying I try to live by. What I lack in smarts I make up for in effort. Given how hard I work, I'm obviously not that smart.
One last thing. Most successful authors don't make their money on the book. They make it on the business, the speaking and the consulting the book drives. James Clear is the exception. Do the math. Thirty million copies, even at a dollar a copy, is $30 million. From a book he would have called a success at 5,000.
So you want to be an author? After everything I’ve learned, here’s my advice: don’t write a book because you think it will make you rich or famous. Write it because you have something worth saying and you’re willing to do the work to say it well.
You cannot control who publishes it, how many people buy it, or whether it ever makes a bestseller list.
You can control whether you finish it. I’m at 50,000 words. Time to write 50,001.
